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International Government: Political Risk Yearbook

Political Risk Yearbook

Political Risk Yearbook
Online version -- subscription canceled due to budget cuts
Ref JL 1416 .P65 (1993)
CD-ROM JL 1416 .P65 (1999, 2001)
"PRS Country Reports forecast the risk of doing business in 100 countries.... Each includes comments and analysis on recent events, profiles of key political players, and wide-ranging forecast scenarios, as well as basic historical and political background and data on the government, political entities, the environment, and the economy, including key sectors."
Most Likely Regimes and Their Probabilities. "We predict the government most likely to be in power over two forecast periods, 18 months and five years, from the date of publication. The percentages after the regime names show the probabilities of those forecasts."
Risk Factors. "Each Country Report provides the current level and likely changes of the following 17 risk components (12 in the 18-month forecast and five in the five-year forecast), which are also used to compile the risk scores.

18-Month Risk Factors

18-Month Risk Factors - Twelve factors are analyzed from an 18-month forecast perspective, including political turmoil, which is included in both the 18-month and the five-year forecasts.

  • Turmoil. Actions that can result in threats or harm to people or property by political groups or foreign governments, operating within the country or from an external base: Riots and demonstrations, Politically motivated strikes, Disputes with other countries that may affect business, Terrorism & guerrilla activities, Civil or international war, Street crime that might affect international business personnel, Organized crime having an impact on political stability or foreign business. Not included in turmoil are legal, work-related labor strikes that do not lead to violence.
  • Equity Restrictions. Limitations on the foreign ownership of businesses, emphasizing sectors where limitations are either especially liberal or especially restrictive.
  • Operations Restrictions. Restrictions on procurement, hiring foreign personnel, or locating business activities, as well as the efficiency and honesty of officials with whom business executives must deal and the effectiveness and integrity of the judicial system.
  • Taxation Discrimination. The formal and informal tax policies that either lead to bias against, or special advantages favoring international business.
  • Repatriation Restrictions. Formal and informal rules regarding the reparation of profits, dividends, and investment capital.
  • Exchange Controls. Formal policies, informal practices, and financial conditions that either ease or inhibit converting local currency to foreign currency, normally a firm's home currency.
  • Tariff Barriers. The average and range of financial costs imposed on imports.
  • Other Import Barriers. Formal and informal quotas, licensing provisions, or other restrictions on imports.
  • Payment Delays. The punctuality, or otherwise, with which government and private importers pay their foreign creditors, based on government policies, domestic economic conditions, and international financial conditions.
  • Fiscal and Monetary Expansion. An assessment of the effect of the government's spending, taxing, interest rate and other monetary policies. The assessment is based on a judgment as to whether the expansion is inadequate for a healthy business climate, acceptably expansionist, or so excessively expansionist as to threaten inflation or other economic disorder.
  • Labor Policies. Government policies, trade union activity, and productivity of the labor force that create either high or low costs for businesses.
  • Foreign Debt. The magnitude of all foreign debt relative to the size of the economy and the ability of the country's public and private institutions to repay debt service obligations promptly.

Five-Year Risk Factors

Five-Year Risk Factors - Four additional factors are analyzed from a five-year forecast perspective. (Turmoil is included in both the 18-month and the five-year forecasts.)

  • Investment Restrictions. The current base and likely changes in the general climate for restricting foreign investments.
  • Trade Restrictions. The current base and the likely changes in the general climate for restricting the entry of foreign trade.
  • Domestic Economic Problems. A country's ranking according to its most recent five-year performance record in per capita GDP, GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, capital investment, and budget balance.
  • International Economic Problems. A country's ranking according to its most recent five-year performance record in current account (as a percentage of GDP), the ratio of debt service to exports, and the annual percentage change in the value of the currency."